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the euro’s falling, the euro’s falling!!!!

I have been watching the currency exchange rate like an obsessive investor watches the stock market since the moment I got here ($1.47 to 1 Euro).

At this very moment the exchange rate is 1.24 for 1 Euro (yesterday at the same time it was 1.25 USD to 1 Euro).    That’s a pretty huge decline.  Look at this way: if I had bought  a E200,000 house with cash when I got here it would have cost me  $294,000.   Today, the same purchase would only cost $248,000.

Some predict the exchange rate could go even lower (like crash).   Which is great for me but not so hot for the EU.

It presents a quandry.   Do I buy a ton of Euros now or hold out because they could go lower?   If it bottoms out, I could be kicking myself for buying a ton of them at $1.24.  On the other hand, the dollar could also crash any day now right along with it, so this could be the optimum time.

What it boils down to is a gamble.    Or a semi educated guess.  I have to decide who I think will be financially stupider and bet on the other.

Will I throw in my lot with the EU or the US?

Up until now, I‘ve been straddling the fence—buying euros when I need them.   I think overall it’s averaged out to a not too terrible exchange rate over the past 12 months (given that the rate was fluctuating between $1.51/E1 and $1.24/E1).

But the current state of things may require definitive action.   A commitment executed swiftly and unequivocally.   Unfortunately, the more I read, the more difficult it becomes.   I have imminent faith in both sets of governments’ability to act stupidly and decimate their economies.  They’ve been doing a fabulous job so far.

Complicating matters, I just read an article that said that when economies break down, sometimes the best currency is cigarettes for bribing officials.   Maybe I should be exchanging my dollars for cigarettes.

I wonder how corrupt officials feel about pastry.

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